The GPA tells you where a bank is heading. The SVI tells you how much to trust that forecast. It measures the volatility of the performance signal itself: how steadily the GPA's six component ratings move across quarters. Drivers that move together give a low SVI and an earned grade; a grade resting on one good quarter gives a high SVI and a fragile grade. In short: GPA tells you where you are, SVI tells you whether you can stay there.
Tier 1 · High confidence · ~0.0 to 0.2
Tier 2 · Moderate · ~0.2 to 0.4
Tier 3 · Low · ~0.4 to 1.0
Tier 4 · Very low · above ~0.6
High GPA · Low SVI: EarnedDurable strength you can count on.
High GPA · High SVI: LuckyA good quarter on a fragile base; one surprise from a downgrade.
Low GPA · Low SVI: StructuralA real, well-understood weakness.
Low GPA · High SVI: In motionA turnaround candidate; the direction of travel decides buy versus sell.
Why it matters. A strong grade is common; a strong grade you can rely on is rare. In the 2026 Honor Roll, only 10 of 4,275 banks cleared both bars (GPA at or above 7.0 and SVI under 0.5). When you build a peer group, watch your peers' SVI too: high-SVI banks' numbers are noisier than they look. (Per-bank SVI can be added to the chart and table next.)
